Intentionally Fouling DeAndre Jordan Is Futile

In the 17 years since Don Nelson first urged the intentional fouling of Dennis Rodman in an attempt to stop the Chicago Bulls from scoring so many points, fans of NBA teams with big men who struggle at the free-throw line have come to rue the “Hack-A-Shaq” strategy. Proponents of uninterrupted basketball have decried it for ruining the flow of games, yet for teams facing Shaquile O’Neal (52.7 percent career FT shooter), Dwight Howard (57.4 percent), Andre Drummond (40.2 percent) and DeAndre Jordan (42.5 percent), it has remained an oft-used, and seemingly viable, strategy.Golden State Warriors coach Mark Jackson is one of its most ardent disciples. In 2012, Jackson famously helped Howard set the NBA record for free throw attempts in a game by telling his players to foul Howard repeatedly. Throughout his three years as a head coach, Jackson has done the same against Jordan and Drummond, and he’s carried the hacking strategy into this year’s playoffs. With three minutes left in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers, the Warriors were up 100-97 and hacked Jordan, a 43 percent free-throw shooter this year. Even though Jordan made both free throws, the strategy earned the praise of preeminent basketball minds like Haralabos Voulgaris, a stats-driven basketball forecaster.The basic math of the “Hack-A-DJ” strategy goes like this: If DeAndre Jordan shoots 43 percent from the free-throw line, fouling him yields two shots and 0.86 expected points. Compare that to the Clippers’ average points per possession this season — 1.12 — and it becomes clear that an intentional foul strategy is, on its face, a savvy one.Except it’s not, once you factor in all the things that happen before and after a free throw.1The basketball blog A Screaming Comes Across the Court did a great job of quantifying the offensive rebound value in a post in February. With a big data assist from ESPN’s Stats & Info group on the Clippers’ and Jordan’s performance over the past two seasons, my calculations make clear that Hack-A-DJ is not a clear-cut winning strategy.To stress-test the intentional foul conventional wisdom, I first broke down how many points the Clippers were expected to score on each possession. That number is 1.12 overall, but intentional fouls are usually given on half-court possessions. If a team fouls a player like Jordan who doesn’t have the ball while another player is on a fast break, it’s possible that the second player will still make a layup that counts for two points, and the free throws will then follow. This exact situation played out in a Kings-Clippers game last season, when Chris Paul made a layup as the Kings intentionally fouled Jordan. Once I limited the expected points per possession to half-court possessions only, the number dropped to 1.04.2Of course, every team is less efficient when you strip out fast breaks, the easiest points in basketball. What was a 0.26 point spread between an intentional foul on Jordan and a regular possession is now 0.18. The advantage is still there, but it’s narrower.Intentionally fouling Jordan also helps the Clippers set their defense on the ensuing possession, which lowers the chances their opponent will score. To figure out how much that’s worth to the Clippers, I measured the difference between the points they allow on possessions after they shoot free throws versus the points they allow after non-free-throw offensive possessions. That difference was 0.04 points, in part because an intentional foul against Jordan ensures the Clippers won’t turn the ball over or allow an opponent to make a fast break after a missed field goal attempt. What was a 0.18 spread between intentionally fouling Jordan and letting the Clippers play on is now 0.14.Finally, and most important, Hack-A-DJ is rendered inefficient because the Clippers are so good at rebounding Jordan’s missed free throws. Over the last two seasons, Jordan has missed 165 free throws with possible rebounds, and the Clippers have grabbed 34 of those rebounds, or 21 percent. That is nearly double the NBA rate of roughly 12 percent and four times the Clippers’ 4.8 percent offensive rebound rate on misses by players other than Jordan. While it’s impossible to know why LA shows such a remarkable ability to grab Jordan’s free-throw misses, it may have something to do with the team expecting a miss, and that the way Jordan misses somehow helping the offensive rebounders. Having Blake Griffin on the blocks can’t hurt, either.These rebounds are important because the Clippers are brutally efficient after corralling missed free throws. In 70 such attempts over the past two seasons, LA has scored 1.36 points per possession. It makes sense that teams would be efficient after missed free throws: The ball is already close to the rim, and the defense is likely in scramble mode, leaving perimeter shooters open.When we include the value of the Clippers’ offensive rebounding, the expected value of a Jordan missed free throw is 0.16 points. With his expected 0.86 points per two free throws, sending Jordan to the line actually yields 1.02 expected points for the Clippers. The gap still exists, but it’s inverted: It’s 0.03 more points more effective to let the Clippers play on than to foul Jordan.You can see how we got here in the chart below.While the Clippers’ free-throw rebounding prowess may decline in the postseason, and their incredible post-free-throw rebound efficiency may be a product of a relatively small sample size of possessions, it’s clear that the intentional-foul strategy is not a sure thing.Of course, every team and every poor foul-shooter is going to have their own break-even points. Dwight Howard, for instance, is a 54.7 percent free-throw shooter this year, so the Rockets expect 1.09 points every time he gets two free throw attempts. But that’s without accounting for the other factors in play — and we do know that those factors matter for all teams. The Rockets might rebound Howard’s misses at a different rate from the Clippers, or play worse defense after missed free throws. It’s just a matter of calculating them.For opponents of Jordan and the Clippers, though, the lesson seems clear: Neither strategy is superior to the other. Over the small sample size of two, four, or six free throws shot by Jordan in a given playoff game, the Hack-A-DJ strategy could look brilliant or foolish. But if the intentional-foul strategy isn’t working against the second-worst free throw shooter in the league, then it may not work against anyone. For fans of an uninterrupted game, that would be a welcome shift. read more

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Five Cays town hall meeting reveals MP plans

first_img PDA takes rally to Five Cays Fire in Five Cays will leave many homeless Related Items:chalk sound, five cays, five cays community center, sean astwood, town hall meeting Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppProvidenciales, 13 Nov 2015 – A town hall meeting held with the Five Cays and Chalk Sound Member of Parliament brought serious concerns to the forefront including infrastructural problems. Reports are there is a large sink hole in Five Cays which despite reportedly being reported to authorities continues to become larger; there is a call for government to fix roadways and improve on street lighting and residents had a chance to vent on the recent row where standing water was left un-pumped because it was on private land. Hon Sean Astwood issued the report where he said he promised residents that welcome signs were coming for both Chalk Sound and Sapodilla Bay early next year and that a Christmas party for children is planned for December 12. Other ideas doled out by the MP were a job readiness seminar, improvement on use of the Five Cays Community Center and an update that the Basketball Court will see the upgrades by the Dwyane Wade Foundation begin in early 2016. Legislative changes are also to be pushed for says the Member, who explained the cemetery is developing haphazardly due to lack of regulations; he told constituents that he is working on creating policy and that more street lights are coming. The recently won trophy, for Five Cays having the best float on the National Heritage Day parade was also unveiled to the residents at that meeting. Budget cuts hurt, but necessary says TCI Deputy Premier in parliamentary debate on hurricane funds Recommended for you Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApplast_img read more

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Best of the Best Regatta on final leg this weekend in Nassau

first_imgFacebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp#Bahamas, December 4, 2017 – Nassau – Minister of Agriculture & Marine Resources, Renward R. Wells, held a press conference last week to update on The Bahamas’ second annual hosting of the Final Stretch of the “Best of the Best” Regatta, scheduled for December 7 thru 10, 2017 at Montagu Bay.   Minister Wells said that more than 50 boats are participating in the A, B and C classes and the Ministry has done its part to ensure the level of participation lives up to the name “Best of the Best.”He added that boat owners and captains will continue to inform the Ministry of what is needed to prepare for what may well be the most competitive weekend of sloop sailing in the history of The Bahamas — anticipating the weekend will be a ‘clash of the champions,’ this Thursday.“Speaking of champions, I am pleased that we will also be hosting the year-end race event for the Star Sailor’s League.  Sailors from around the world have begun arriving and training in Montagu Harbour for what, too, will be a very competitive race,” said Minister Wells.“As a fellow Olympian and a proud Bahamian, I am particularly pleased that we will be hosting a number of Olympic gold medalists and world champions in this race.   I thank Mr. Robert Dunkley and the Nassau Yacht Club team for their work in staging the races along with the Star Sailor’s League.   I am particularly delighted to announce that our own Olympic Gold medal winner, The Sea Wolf, Sir Durward Knowles, will be out to view the races.”#MagneticMediaNews#BestoftheBestRegattaPhoto credit: Life on The Hook Related Items:#BestoftheBestRegatta, #magneticmedianewslast_img read more

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Xhaka speaks about Arsenals victory

first_imgThe Gunners defeated Fulham 4-1 today in the English Premier League to open 2019 with a win that puts them fifth on the tableGranit Xhaka scored in the 25th minute today for Arsenal in order to open the doors for the Gunners to beat Fulham FC 4-1.And Xhaka is very happy after his goal and explained the importance of winning at Anfield.“Of course, it was not a good game for us against Liverpool. We started well there but after we lost 5-1. We know we have a lot we need to improve, and today is the first step,” he told the club’s official website.Jadon SanchoMerson believes Arsenal should sign Sancho Manuel R. Medina – September 14, 2019 Borussia Dortmund winger Jadon Sancho might be the perfect player to play for the Gunners, according to former England international Paul Merson.“We know they have a new coach, a good team and we knew that before but we were playing at home and we started well, we had some chances and scored the first goals and after it went to 2-1, there were a few nerves but we are happy to have the three points.”“Yes, surprise, surprise, I can score in the box now! I am happy to be able to help the team and to take the three points, which is the most important thing,” he said about his goal.“We can learn a lot from this team. We know Liverpool have a good team this year and we have a tough programme in front of us we play West Ham away and then Chelsea at home and we want to get in the top four.”last_img read more

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Buffon admits PSG and Man United are on a par

first_imgParis Saint-Germain goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon is bracing up for his team’s Champions League clash against a resurgent Manchester United team.The two teams will try to secure an advantage in the first leg of their last 16 clash on Tuesday night before the return leg in Paris on 6 March.United head into the clash having gone 11 games unbeaten under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer since becoming the interim manager in December.Here come the Men in White 👊🏾 #LAFORCE#MUPSG pic.twitter.com/eDIQP0rQEn— Presnel Kimpembe (@kimpembe_3) February 11, 2019And Buffon feels that the turnaround in fortunes for the Red Devils will make the match a lot difficult, with PSG losing their first league defeat of the season against Lyon.“Old Trafford is the temple of a great team with a very important history,” he told FourFourTwo via Sky Italia.“This tie must be confronted in a serious way and without any regrets. We’ll regret it if our way of playing isn’t expressed in the way that the match demands.“Football is strange: two months ago, at the time of the draw, everyone thought that PSG would go through.Harry Maguire, Manchester UnitedLiverpool legend Nicol slams Harry Maguire’s Man United form Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Steve Nicol believes Harry Maguire has made some “horrendous mistakes” recently, and has failed to find his best form since joining Manchester United.“Two months later, seeing what has happened with us and the developments at Manchester United, we are at the least on the same level now.“This makes you understand how strange it is and how certain balances can swap around in the Champions League.”🔜🔥🏟️We are ready! 👊#MUPSG pic.twitter.com/pJwJLqcEbD— Paris Saint-Germain (@PSG_English) February 10, 2019Buffon equally had some words for former Juventus teammate Paul Pogba who would be in action tomorrow.“Paul is a golden boy, I’m always pleased to see him because he’s an incredible champion,” Buffon said.“Of course, I hope he can bring me the respect he owes me and that he’s very calm!”last_img read more

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